A single-family lot on a quiet street in Fernwood does not sell for one number in 2026. It sells for whichever of two numbers is higher on the day the offers come in. One number belongs to a family that wants the house. The other belongs to a small builder pricing the lot against a six-unit houseplex pro forma. The gap between those two numbers, and which one is winning in the current market, is the most useful thing a Victoria seller can understand this year.
That gap exists because the City of Victoria writes its own missing-middle rulebook, and the province just spent June closing loopholes everywhere else. The June 30, 2026 Bill 25 compliance deadline forced neighbouring municipalities to tighten their small-scale multi-unit housing bylaws. Victoria was already ahead of the province by more than three years, and that head start is now baked into land values.
The Rulebook Victoria Wrote For Itself
Most buyers, and a fair number of sellers, still think Bill 44 governs redevelopment on their block. Inside the City of Victoria, it does not. The controlling framework is Schedule P of the zoning bylaw, adopted January 26, 2023 as the Missing Middle Housing Initiative. It permits a houseplex of up to six units on a typical residential lot, and a corner townhouse of up to twelve units on qualifying corner sites, without a rezoning or public hearing.
Compare that with what the provincial Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing framework requires next door. In Saanich, Oak Bay, and most of the Capital Regional District, SSMUH permits three units on lots up to 280 square metres, four on larger lots, and six only on larger lots within 400 metres of a frequent-transit stop. A four-unit outcome in Oak Bay is a six-unit outcome inside Victoria, on the same size of lot, without a public hearing on either side.
| Municipality | Framework | Max units, typical lot | Max units, larger lot near transit |
|---|---|---|---|
| City of Victoria | Schedule P | Up to 6 (houseplex) | Up to 12 on corner lots (corner townhouse) |
| Saanich | Provincial SSMUH | 3 to 4 by lot size | 6 within 400 m of frequent transit |
| Oak Bay | Provincial SSMUH | 3 to 4 by lot size | 6 within 400 m of frequent transit |
That difference is the reason a Fairfield lot and a comparable Oak Bay lot, similar in size, similar in age of house, similar in location relative to a beach or a school, can attract structurally different offers.
What Bill 25 Actually Changed, And What It Did Not
Bill 25 received Royal Assent in November 2025 and set a compliance deadline of June 30, 2026 for every affected municipality to update its zoning bylaws. It redefined "restricted zone" to close a loophole some cities were using to avoid the full four-to-six-unit density, and it gives the province tools to override municipal bylaws that make the permitted unit counts economically unviable.
The important point for a Victoria seller: Bill 25 tightened rules in Saanich, Oak Bay, and the West Shore, but it did not raise the ceiling above Victoria's Schedule P. The provincial floor moved up. Victoria's ceiling stayed where it was. The relative advantage inside the city widened rather than closed.
There is a second effect worth pricing in. Bill 25 removes an excuse for municipalities that were slow-walking approvals. Builders who had been quietly parking capital while they waited for clarity in Saanich now have clarity, which spreads their attention across more of the region. That marginally reduces the intensity of builder bidding on any single Victoria lot, even as it expands the number of lots in play regionally.
Reading The June 2026 Market Through The Builder's Lens
The market softened into that deadline. The Victoria Real Estate Board reported 719 sales in June 2026, down 5.5 per cent from June 2025, with 4,054 active listings at month end, up 7.3 per cent year over year. The MLS Home Price Index benchmark for a single-family home in the Victoria Core sat at $1,326,500, down 0.6 per cent from a year earlier. The condominium benchmark was $549,200, down 1.9 per cent.
VREB Chair Fergus Kyne described a market where buyers "are carefully comparing properties and looking for really strong value." That language matters. Builders are also buyers, and they compare properties on yield, not on charm. When the benchmark condo price drifts down while construction costs stay flat, the number of Fernwood lots that pencil at six units drops. A lot that would have attracted three builder offers in 2023 might attract one in the current market, or zero if the site plan is awkward.
The consequence for a seller is counter-intuitive. In a hotter market, the houseplex price sets the floor. In a market with more inventory and softer condo values, the owner-occupier price sets the floor, and the houseplex price shows up only on the lots where the math still works: flat, rectangular, close to a bus route, no protected trees, no heritage listing.
Where The Two-Price Gap Actually Shows Up
Not every Victoria lot has two prices. The gap is real on lots where Schedule P delivers a clean six-unit outcome, and it disappears on lots where site conditions or overlays knock the yield down to three or four. A few patterns emerge from the ground.
A standard lot in North Park within walking distance of frequent transit tends to attract both audiences. The buyer pool is genuinely split, and offers often come in within a narrow band of each other, since the owner-occupier is bidding against the builder's floor.
A tree-heavy character lot in Fernwood with a pre-1930s house sitting near the front setback tends to attract owner-occupiers who see restoration value. The houseplex math is harder here because protected trees eat site coverage, and demolition of an older home invites both community attention and archaeological review under the BC Heritage Conservation Act.
A corner lot inside the Traditional Residential development permit area is the outlier. The corner-townhouse form allows up to twelve units, and that yield changes the arithmetic decisively. On the right corner, in the right block, the builder number is meaningfully above what any owner-occupier will pay for a single house.
The Friction That Catches Sellers Late
The two-price framing only helps a seller who can actually deliver a site a builder can use. Several transaction points routinely surface late in a Victoria sale and change what an accepted offer is actually worth.
- Tenanted properties. SSMUH and Schedule P allow more units without rezoning, but a redevelopment that displaces existing tenants triggers relocation and compensation obligations that vary by unit count. Sellers with a suite tenant on a fixed-term agreement or a long-standing month-to-month often discover the friction only during subject removal.
- Heritage overlays and character conservation. Development permits are typically required for multi-unit residential projects of more than three primary dwelling units, and lots inside heritage-conservation areas trigger additional review. A lot that appears redevelopable on a zoning map can carry a heritage designation on title that changes the pro forma.
- The BC home flipping tax. For owners who acquired within the past two years, the Residential Property (Short-Term Holding) Profit Tax Act applies a 20 per cent tax on net profit if the property is sold within 365 days of acquisition, decreasing on a sliding scale to zero at day 730. It applies even to a primary residence, subject to a limited deduction, and the return is due within 90 days of disposition. This is not tax advice. It is a timing consideration that belongs in every conversation with a seller who bought during or after 2024.
- Demolition, asbestos, and archaeology. Any older Victoria home headed for demolition triggers WorkSafe BC hazardous-materials protocols before permits issue, and lots inside the city's archaeological potential mapping can require assessment before excavation. Builders price these directly into their offer. Owner-occupiers usually do not.
A seller who understands where the site lands on each of these points is negotiating from a stronger position than one who lists first and learns second.
A Short FAQ
If Schedule P allows six units on my Fairfield lot, does the market always price that in? No. The market prices in whatever a rational buyer can actually build and sell profitably on the specific site. Six units on paper and six units in a viable pro forma are different numbers, and the gap is wider in a softer market.
Does the Bill 25 deadline mean Oak Bay lots will start pricing like Victoria lots? Not on unit yield. Oak Bay is still governed by the provincial SSMUH ceiling, which tops out below Victoria's. The Bill 25 change tightens Oak Bay's floor, it does not raise its ceiling to match Schedule P.
How does the June 2026 softening affect a listing decision this summer? Softer benchmarks and higher inventory shift negotiating power toward buyers, but they also thin the builder bench for redevelopment lots. That combination often favours accurate pricing to the owner-occupier value, with builder interest treated as upside rather than as the anchor.
Where can I verify the framework itself? The provincial SSMUH page at gov.bc.ca and the City of Victoria's zoning bylaw text are the primary sources. Anything a broker, planner, or builder says about a specific lot should be checked against both.
Every Victoria street tells a slightly different version of this story, and the number that matters is the one that appears on the offer table, not the one on a portal. If you are weighing what your lot is actually worth in the current market, or how a Schedule P outcome would shape a purchase in Fernwood, Fairfield, or North Park, FarupScott Group is glad to walk through the specifics of your site, quietly and without pressure. Connect With Us.
